Winey Opines · No. 11

Why California wineries are going bankrupt now

Short answer: the question is why two of California’s proven survivors, Signorello in Napa and Gundlach Bundschu in Sonoma, went to bankruptcy court within a month of each other, and whether it changes what you should buy. They borrowed for growth at the top of the market, demand turned, their lender stopped waiting, and the land no longer covers the loan. That combination is not rare; it is the standard shape of the next two years. For you, the bottle is unchanged and the deals are real, as long as you take delivery and never prepay.

What actually happened

Gundlach Bundschu filed for Chapter 11 on September 23 with more than $37 million in debt, and the family expects to lose majority ownership. The winery and the tasting room stay open through the process. The debt traces to February 2020, when the family bought a second property near Glen Ellen that became Abbot’s Passage, a mid-priced brand with bocce courts and a tasting room built for the crowds of 2019. The crowds never came back. Abbot’s Passage closed in June. The workforce went from 102 to 63 over eighteen months. The family shopped the business, got three letters of interest and no deal, was offered more money at rates it called onerous, and chose the court instead.

Signorello filed on August 27 to stop a foreclosure auction over roughly $37 million owed, almost all of it to one lender. The Atlas Fire took the winery in October 2017. Six years of construction followed, with concrete and steel costs climbing the whole way, and the new winery opened in 2024 into the softest wine market in a generation. Ray Signorello told the Chronicle the rate on the loan went from 4.75 percent to 12.6 percent once the business was out of compliance. Longtime customers offered the lender $16 million in cash for the estate and were turned down. The bankruptcy now carries a $20 million offer from two individuals who are also lending the winery the cash to keep operating while the sale runs. The auction date keeps moving while the court decides.

The lender in both cases is American AgCredit, a borrower-owned farm credit cooperative in Santa Rosa. It is owed about $17.3 million by Gundlach Bundschu and about $36.3 million by Signorello. Remember that name. It will be in the next story too.

The dynamics, in order

Debt taken at the peak. Both wineries borrowed heavily in 2019 and 2020, one to buy, one to rebuild. Every winery that added a tasting room, a hospitality wing or a second brand in those years did the same arithmetic on the same assumptions: visitors keep coming, checks keep rising, wine keeps selling. Three assumptions, three misses.

Demand turned. Industry sales fell 2 percent by volume and 1.6 percent by dollars in 2025, the decline is expected to bounce along a bottom through 2028, and tasting room visits and check sizes fell hardest at the small hospitality-focused wineries. That last clause is the whole story. A family winery on a pretty property in Sonoma is exactly a small hospitality-focused winery, and its money comes through the front gate. Wine Country visitation has been sliding since 2022. About 30 percent of Napa and Sonoma wineries cut tasting fees in 2025 and the traffic still did not come back.

The lender stopped being patient. Farm lenders spent a century treating wine land as the safest collateral in California, because it always was. A missed payment got a phone call and a new schedule. Now a missed payment gets a default rate, a notice and a sale date. The reason is simple: the lender’s own read of the land has changed. If the lender believed the estate would fetch more next year, it would wait. Turning down $16 million in cash and calling an auction says it does not.

The land no longer covers the loan. This is the part that makes foreclosure possible where it used to be unthinkable. For decades the vineyard was worth more than the debt, so a struggling winery could always sell, repay and walk away with something. With grape prices down, vines coming out by the thousand acres (No. 8 covered the pull-out) and buyers scarce, the estate and the debt are now roughly the same number. Three letters of interest and no closing is what “scarce” looks like up close.

Timing is not bad luck, it is a cohort. The number of U.S. wineries fell about 3 percent between 2025 and the start of 2026. Every loan written in 2019 through 2022 for hospitality or acquisition is now five years old, resetting or out of covenant, held by a handful of agricultural lenders who all read the same market. The Chronicle’s read is that the shared themes, unfortunate timing and unyielding lenders, mean more bankruptcies and even foreclosures are coming. Signorello’s own phrase for it was “just the beginning.” I agree, and I would add that the ones most exposed are not the famous names. They are the ~500-case family operations that built a tasting room on a loan in 2021 and have no wholesale business to fall back on.

What it means for the bottle you are about to buy

The wine does not know about Chapter 11. A 2019 Rhinefarm Cabernet is the same wine it was last month, made by the same people on the same land. Price it the way you would price any bottle: what is it worth to you, and what is the shelf asking. If those two numbers line up, buy it. The court process is designed to sell the business whole, so nobody is dumping the library on a sidewalk. What you will see instead is the quiet version: a club offer with a bigger discount than usual, a “last release” email, a case price that would have been a splurge two years ago. From a winery with a lender at the gate, that discount is real. From a big brand that is merely overstocked, it is the new normal, and it will still be there in March.

Take delivery. That is the one rule. A wine club shipment charged when it ships is fine. A prepaid allocation, a futures offer, a gift card, a deposit on a private event: in a bankruptcy, that money makes you an unsecured creditor standing behind the lender, the barrel supplier and the cork company. Unsecured creditors get pennies. If you love a winery in trouble and want to help, buy bottles and carry them out the door.

Tasting fees are the other thing moving. Sonoma’s standard tasting fell to $47 last year. Napa’s average is still $79. A winery that just cut its fee is telling you something about its Saturday afternoons, and a quiet tasting room is a very good place to ask about case pricing.

Sources

Straight answers

Should I buy wine from a winery in bankruptcy?

Yes, if the price is right. The bottle is unchanged. Pay at pickup or per shipment and never in advance.

Is Gundlach Bundschu closing?

No sign of it. The winery and tasting room are operating through the process. The family may end up a minority owner of its own name.

Will Signorello be sold?

That is the plan. The bankruptcy exists to sell the estate as a running business rather than let the lender auction the pieces.

Will Napa prices fall?

Tasting fees, yes. Bottle prices at the top end, mostly not. The correction is concentrated under $12 a bottle, where the glut lives. Above $50 the lists have barely moved.

Is the wine industry collapsing?

No. It shrank 2 percent last year. What is collapsing is the balance sheet of the wineries that borrowed for a 2019 that never came back.

Who is next?

I do not know, and I will not guess names. The shape is what I can give you: borrowed between 2019 and 2022 for hospitality or an acquisition, depends on the tasting room for most of its revenue, one lender, no wholesale cushion. There are hundreds of those.

Does any of this make the wine better or worse?

Neither. Read the bottle, not the balance sheet.

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